This information is from the 2015 publication ‘Building New Zealand’s Future’ by PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) New Zealand. To read the complete document please go to http://www.pwc.co.nz/annual-review/
1. Demographic and social change
New Zealand’s population is set to reach five million by 2031, including two million in Auckland.
Projections suggest that the number of people identifying as Asian will have risen to 800,000 by 2026 – just short of a Maori population of around 811,000. New Zealand’s Pasifika population is also set to increase, and will reach 480,000 by 2026.
In New Zealand the average age is set to reach 46 years old, with 25 percent of the population aged 65 or older by 2051. The number of people aged 85 years and older is projected to increase from 67,000 in 2009 to 144,000 in 2031, then more than double to about 330,000 by 2061.
2. Shift in global economic power
As the global centre of power and wealth moves away from Europe and North America and into Asia, New Zealand is set to benefit from a closer proximity and strengthening relationship with China. The actions of the New Zealand Government and business community to further develop relationships with China, and the rest of Asia, will be critical to our economy’s future success.
3. Rapid urbanisation
New Zealand is one of the most urbanised countries in the world. More than 70 percent of the population lives in the 16 main urban areas and around 33 percent in the Auckland urban region alone.
By 2032 Auckland is forecast to increase its share of national population growth from around 55 percent to over 70 percent.
In the next 25 years Auckland city will grow to account for 38 percent of the total population. Half of New Zealand’s regions will lose population in the same period.
4. Climate change and resource scarcity
At current rates of consumption we may have just half a century’s worth of oil and gas left. Globally we look set to miss the carbon target to keep temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius by 2034.
These two linked factors could lead to either of two extreme outcomes: a policy shock, with a global agreement that severely penalises carbon emissions; or a climate or resource shock, where a natural event causes massive environmental and economic change.
5. Technological breakthroughs
Smartphone ownership has jumped significantly in New Zealand between 2011 and 2014. Ownership of smartphones by people aged between 15 and 65 was 13 percent in 2011 and 64 percent in 2014.